Saturday, May 17, 2008

Australia has fared subprime crisis well: RBA

This is the second article saying roughly the same thing. What the article is really talking about is that the banks have fared well. This doesn't imply the economy (and Australia) has fared well.


It is far too early to say if the economy has fared well - we have to to wait for the fallout from the tighter lending criteria for businesses and individuals. Will it be a soft landing or a hard landing in Oz? Can we make a comparison with NZ?
A few months ago the RBNZ was still talking up another rate rise later in 2008 with concerns about inflation even though the housing sector was cooling. In the last month they have completely switched and yesterday's headline was lowering of interest rates coming soon. Indeed the banks have already started lowing their fixed interest rates. All on the concern of the unexpected poor employment figures. Yet inflation is still at the high end.
What the RBNZ failed to comprehend is that while consumers were happy consumering away over Xmas indicating that the economy was still boiling away, in the background businesses have been unable to get credit - from any lender - in NZ. No credit -> contraction -> loss of jobs.
It just takes a while for the data to show up on the radar. In fact, those seemingly unaffected by the credit crunch are still busily consumering away.
Interesting times for both countries.

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